At the end of the fourth quarter, the overall performance of the needle coke market was stable. After the November increase, the overall stable operation was maintained, cost pressures were slightly reduced, and weak demand continued. There is no obvious motivation for changes in the pattern in the short term.

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According to the data in December, graphite electrodes continued to fall, demand was relatively thin, raw material prices remained stable and declined, graphite electrode cost support gradually weakened, market trading atmosphere was general, and wait-and-see sentiment was strong. The market outlook predicts that both supply and demand will continue to be weak. On the one hand, policies restrict the start of construction in some areas and have clear policies. On the other hand, the terminal steel mills are under-starting, rigid demand support is weak, and production companies with poor profitability take the initiative to reduce production. The overall operation of the electrode market is slowing down and inventory is consumed. The price of the graphite electrode market is mainly weak and stable in the short term.

In December, the average operating rate of electric furnace steel plants was 48.88%, an increase of 0.33% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%. The profit situation is fair, about 66.13% of the steel mills are profitable. The price of raw materials remains high, the demand is weakening, and the enthusiasm for increasing production is not high. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate and operating rate of the electric arc furnace next week will be limited or the rebound will be limited.

Anode: In October 2021, China's mainstream anode company's anode material output was about 60,100 tons, a decrease of 5.91% from the previous month and an increase of 46.41% from the same period last year. The supply of lithium battery anode materials will continue to approach, and there will be no new capacity release in the short term, and production will continue to be full.

1#Petroleum coke weighted price trend chart

The price of 1# petroleum coke has been steadily declining, and the market price of high-quality No. 1 petroleum coke is firm, and the transaction range is stable at 5500-5600 yuan/ton. The demand for stocking of anodes still exists before the year, and the capacity of downstream anodes is expanding. At present, the output of cathode coke is limited. The downstream demand for high-quality raw materials is strong in the short-term and the medium and long-term continued to improve. To a certain extent, the supply of some indicators has become tight. High-quality 1# petroleum coke is currently fragmented from the fundamentals of the entire petroleum coke market. There are short-term upward expectations, and the prospects may be larger under the premise of no pressure on inventories.

In relative terms, the performance of electrode coke was mediocre, and shipments were mediocre. The 1# petroleum coke in North China dropped significantly. There is no shortage of production companies in the future to reduce load and balance production and shipment. Low-sulfur petroleum coke finishing operation, mainly for stable price shipments.

The needle coke market is differentiated, and the demand for negative electrodes supports the stable and stable operation of needle coke, and the market responds to the shipment without worries. The raw coke transaction range is concentrated at 7000-7500 yuan/ton. After calcined needle coke shipments weakened, shipments of some high-priced resources were blocked, the cost pressure of raw material prices fell, and the demand support was still insufficient. At present, a number of needle coke manufacturers plan to overhaul, and the output of needle coke will be reduced in the second half of this month. The overall inventory of production enterprises is controllable, and the overall supply of needle coke is indispensable.

To sum up, at the end of 2021, needle coke will be stable and excessive, and the short-term profitability of the market is limited. Although needle coke companies have not explicitly restricted the implementation of production policies, some areas of the downstream market are obviously restricted, and the downstream market structure will change in the future It is clear that production enterprises' product applications focus on shifting, and coal-based needle coke is paying unprecedented attention to the downstream anode market. The improvement of future product indicators and the establishment of a more stable cooperation model with downstream will promote the needle coke market to enter a more complete period of running-in with downstream.

Article source Longzhong Information